Raoul Pal: Bitcoin Became A “Supermassive Black Hole ...

Some Bitcoin Analysts and Prediction Today and Yesterday & Why "It's not the Price, Dummy"

This is just for fun, I generally have no strong feelings toward bitcoin price (I'm just fundamentally against zero-sum get rich schemes). But today I decided to do a little bitcoin search in news.google.com and see what today's bulls were predicting in 2018. Side note, almost all of the news articles came from crypto sites. I tried my best to stay away from them. Farming magazine telling you agriculture is the future isn't exactly shocking.
To people who invest, please don't consider this as a prediction that price will fall. I'm not astute or smart enough to predict either way. The only possible use is to make sure you are more skeptic regarding predictions. Keep in mind, a rich CEO or consultant can lose 100 million and not really affect his life that much, but a 10k or 100k lose for some people can be devastating. And remember, some of these rich hedge managers don't believe their own bullshit, and hopefully, some of these quotes will emulate that.
(Note, I won't waste time linking them all, but by quoting them directly, it should be easy to google)
(another side note, I didn't purposely search out specific names. I went by the first names I came across, and only ignoring those that I couldn't find anything regarding crypto in past years)

Mike Novogratz

Present: Business Inside: Bitcoin is like 'digital gold' and won't be used the same as a traditional currency in at least 5 years, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says
Past: On Nov, 2017, he said: "Bitcoin could ‘easily’ reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, hedge fund legend Novogratz says"
2018: "Michael Novogratz calls a bottom in cryptocurrencies" (it wasn't)
Novogratz started a crypto funding in 2018. First 9 months "Mike Novogratz’s Crypto Trading Desk Lost $136 Million in Nine Months" (Bloomberg). Quarter 4: "Galaxy Digital Posts $32.9 Million in Net Loss for Q4 2019". Feb 2020 "Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Slashes 15% Staff"

Raoul Pal

Present: "For Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, the bullish atmosphere had been reinforced, and further gains were more likely than ever.
“There are literally only two resistances left on the #bitcoin chart - 14,000 and then the old all-time high at 20,000,” he tweeted."
In a tweet today, he said, "Bitcoin is eating the world...
It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.
You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC"
Past: 2014: "Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this—but I don't mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000." (to be honest, that's a bit of an impressive prediction in 2014)
On the other hand, he probably didn't really believe his own prediction because in June, 2017 (when it was 2000 USD or so), he said: " “This is the most exponential move we have seen. I don’t know how far it goes, but I sold out last week… and I’ve [owned Bitcoin] since it was $200. Anything that moves exponentially, always [blows up].”"
In 2016, "This view brings Pal to the asset he favors most over the next year out of bonds, equities, currencies and commodities: the dollar."

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Eh, that was just two. I was hoping to mention several people, but it appears not many people are actually making predictions anymore, and anyone mentioned are basically not big people so I couldn't find much on them regarding bitcoin before 2019.
So, the main thing I like to highlight are the analysts and such are going to make money whatever happens. Fund managers are playing with people's money and, as long as they are not involved in frauds, there is no real harm to them against wrong predictions. Generally, successful business people are successful because they were loud, confident, and were able to convince others that they had the right idea. Even when wrong, they bounce back. Most of us aren't like that.
Some bitcoiners come here to boast when price goes up, as if the increase in price is an indication that argument against bitcoin has been proven wrong. While some people here are fanatically anti-bitcoin, I am not one of those. I have nothing against people making money (why would I be upset that people I don't know around the world became wealthier??). But since bitcoin investing is by design a zero sum game, certain people will eventually lose, and it is most likely it is the people who were listening to predictions by experts that would ultimately be financially hurt, and not the experts making the predictions.
Crypto investing has been a platform where the average person works hard in his day to day life, and then brings the fruits of his labor into this field. The actual productive part of that person's life is the one outside crypto, where they had been productive for the community, and in exchange, they receive wages. Crypto investing's promise is for this wage to increase without the actual productivity. The concern is mainly that the result of all that labor will be misused by crypto "experts" who's own income (their labor) is directly linked to predictions on crypto.
The above paragraph is badly explained, but the main point is that the average person brings in outside money they worked hard for, while "experts" there is generally no outside money, crypto fund management or consulting itself is their job.
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Money can be made, of course, but money being made isn't necessarily an argument for something. Bitcoin, and crypto, has for the past 1.5 decades still largely just about numbers going up. Google trend on "bitcoin" show top related queries being "bitcoin price", "bitcoin usd", "bitcoin usd price". When people come here when it hits a particular arbitrary price point thinking it's their gotcha moment, it actually just reinforces my argument that it is only about the price. Nothing in the history of human economy has ever lasted based only on the economic model of who you could resell it for at a higher price.
Even DeFi's smart contracts (as much as I could understand it) is about prices going up. It's like for these people the concept of contracts are based purely on money exchanging hands, and no actual task being done. Almost all contracts globally are based on specific productive tasks being done, such as employee contract, supplier contract, property contract, and so on. Only a tiny amount of it is based on "if this currency goes up, then give me that currency" contracts.
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TD9 and Exchange Inflows: Reasons for Caution as Bitcoin Hits $10,440

The price of Bitcoin hit $10,463 on BitMEX, slightly below the previous peak in June. But two indicators are signaling a BTC cool-off: TD9 and exchange inflows. The price of Bitcoin tests a crucial resistance level. Source: Raoul Pal The TD9 is a trend-reversal indicator that is a part of the TD sequential system. It […]
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Top 3 Reasons for Bitcoin to Become a Global Safe-haven Asset

Top 3 Reasons for Bitcoin to Become a Global Safe-haven Asset

Bitcoin has risen for three reasons, and investors are increasingly considering seeking hedging in Bitcoin.
  1. Legal currency depreciation

The economist Raoul Pal said that as the US and other countries tried to boost economic growth by cutting interest rates, investors began pouring in gold, cash, government bonds and bitcoin as hedging instruments.

Pal warned that he is currently at the most important moment in his foreign exchange market for his 30-year career. The dollar seems to face an uncontrolled risk of appreciation.

Pal pointed out that the Fed's generalized trade-weighted US dollar index is close to 130 and is on the verge of breaking through a huge cup-shaped pattern.

At the same time, the ADXY (Asian Dollar) index is about to fall below the key trend line.

JPMorgan’s emerging market currency index is also underperforming and is about to fall to a new low.

Pal pointed out that at least seven other legal tender currencies are also depreciating, and the conclusion is that a stronger US dollar is triggering a massive wave of global deflation, which could lead to a financial crisis. However, the optimistic side is that this may be very beneficial for bitcoin prices.

  1. Bitcoin is increasingly irrelevant to traditional markets

As central banks show that they will continue to loosen monetary policy, investors are becoming more and more nervous. Later, the Fed announced a rate cut of 25 basis points.

According to the latest data from SFOX, Bitcoin has the lowest correlation with traditional markets.

Just recently, the Bank of Thailand cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time since 2015. The New Zealand central bank also cut 50 basis points, which surprised many investors.

In addition, the Bank of India also cut interest rates by 35 basis points.

It is worth noting that John M. A chart published by Spallanzani shows that in the past few years, the interest rate of the Bank of India seems to be inversely related to the price of Bitcoin.

Interestingly, in the past few years, the rate hike seems to coincide with the bottom of the bitcoin price, and vice versa.

3, Bitcoin can provide asymmetric returns

Other analysts also believe that bitcoin is increasingly appearing in the attention of investors looking for alternative safe-haven assets. Wx:CY-52520

For example, in an interview earlier this week, Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano discussed how Bitcoin will respond to current global monetary easing trends.

Pompliano believes that more and more organizations are starting to focus on Bitcoin because it "has been proven to be irrelevant and provides asymmetrical returns compared to traditional assets."

At the same time, Fundstrat's research director Tom Lee believes that Bitcoin has been decoupled from the strong dollar, and the strong dollar is the reason for the sharp fall in bitcoin prices in 2018. Bitcoin is "negatively associated with the stock market."

As a result, bitcoin is increasingly associated with gold, and its performance in 2019 is significantly better than precious metals, traditional stocks and almost all assets.

Lee said that this trend may accelerate as investors seek safe haven for traditional stocks. The Fed’s recent interest rate cuts will have a positive impact on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a macro hedging tool for investors to guard against possible problems. Liquidity is driving capital into all of these risky assets and hedging, which helps bitcoin rise. At this rate, Bitcoin can easily break through its historical highs.
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Raoul Pal on Bitcoin as a Global Recession Hedge WARNING: Bitcoin Maximalists Chamath Palihapitiya & Raoul Pal BOMBSHELL: The Markets WILL IMPLODE SLP203 Raoul Pal – Bitcoin and Macro Collide - YouTube Raoul Pal: Bitcoin To 1 Million  Global Markets Insolvent ... Raoul Pal Makes His Bitcoin Price Prediction  It’s More Than You Think!

Raoul Pal is Not Alone. Other analysts seem to be bullish as well. A lesser-known trader by the username also shared Raoul Pal’s “prediction.” of Bitcoin to 1 million in 2025, based on a logarithmic growth model but considering 4-year cycles with more strength than Raoul’s method. Raoul Pal ist ein ehemaliger Mitarbeiter der weltweit bekannten Bank Goldman Sachs. Dabei hat er in den letzten 12 Monaten einer Wandlung durchlebt, die man sprichwörtlich als ‚vom Saulus zum Paulus‘ bezeichnen kann. Denn Pal entwickelte sich im vergangenen Jahr immer mehr zu einem Bitcoin Bullen, der von Interview zu Interview optimistischer gegenüber BTC wurde. Dabei spricht er auf ... Raoul Pal: It’s good to be here. Stephan Livera: Raoul. You’ve been commenting a lot on Bitcoin and the last time we chat and we had a chat was about almost a year, about a year ago. So I’d love to get your thoughts. Where are you? What’s updated in your thinking around Bitcoin over that time? Raoul Pal: Well, quite a lot’s happened ... Global Macro Investor CEO Raoul Pal has explained why he believes bitcoin is better than gold in every way. He proclaims that bitcoin is "the hardest form of money" and "the best reserve asset and ... In a recent interview with Daniela Cambone, former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal said that bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next five years.

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Raoul Pal on Bitcoin as a Global Recession Hedge

Raoul Pal of Real Vision rejoins me on the show to talk about how Bitcoin and Macro are colliding. We talk about the incredible risk:reward opportunity of bi... In this clip, Peter and Raoul analyze what’s going on in the markets for gold and bitcoin. Peter analyzes the recent short positions of commercial players as... Raoul Pal is a leading macroeconomist who has worked for Goldman Sachs, managed hedge funds and advised to some of the largest funds in the world. He now runs Real Vision, a digital content ... ♊️GEMINI Exchange SIGN UP - https: ... Raoul Pal: Bitcoin To 1 Million Global Markets Insolvent - Duration: 40:30. Cambridge House International Inc. 105,956 views. 40:30. MacroEconomist ... Raoul Pal on global market insolvency and Bitcoin at one million dollars. When Raoul talks, investors listen and today is no different. Raoul is the co-found...

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