Trade Bitcoin On Leverage - Bosch Unternehmensdaten
CRYPTOCURRENCY LEVERAGE TRADING: Definition, How It Works ...
Trade Bitcoin On Leverage - Bitcoin Price Chart Tradeview
Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations
TweeBuck is about to launch... Exciting? Definitely!
The concept of finance is not new, it has been in existence since the earliest days of the exchange. Everyone has the opportunity and ability to be successful if they have the right resources, however, one of the most challenging aspects of building a business is financing it and many often struggle in their endeavour to raise the capital required. Over the years, the concept developed into a centralized system allowing users to trust their assets (money and any other forms of wealth) to 3rd parties with the goal of receiving monthly or yearly interest. This concept was great while it lasted but as usual, the only thing that remains constant is change. Cryptocurrency and Blockchain came into existence some years back as a medium to pay for services rendered via digital currency. Bitcoin, the very first Blockchain, was created but served as a one-way payment medium and nothing more. However, developers saw the vision that something more could be achieved using this same technology, but with more features being included. These were called smart contracts. Smart contracts do not require both parties to be present, they are automated and use real-time data to generate the result. Ethereum brought this to reality and a few years later, others saw this opportunity and started making use of it to build DeFi apps, which would later become more preferable to CeFi. https://preview.redd.it/r29i9sgbbzu51.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=7234ba1a5ad36e13a057d60303c02cc4efa60a13 Decentralized finance, or DeFi for short, is a general term used to represent financial applications or platforms that are built using one or more Blockchain, that make use of smart contracts to create higher returns on investment. DeFi alone is a great investment option, but the major challenge it has faced so far is a lack of users or a limited number of users whose sole aim is to increase their vested capital. Up until now, it has not been community-driven, which would create something far greater. Tweebaa intends to achieve this. What is Tweebaa? Tweebaa is the world’s only earning commerce platform. Its revolutionary multi-dimensional ecosystem utilizes a value-exchange model and provides everyone with the means and opportunity to generate a substantial income. Tweebaa empowers its users by applying their winning team's proven success methods with “DRTV (Direct Response Television)” and helps bring a global network of traffic to their product or business! Tweebaa has all the great communication features you would want within social networking and of course the best marketplace too! Tweebaa paves the way for users to earn money in a variety of ways whilst also providing the emotional, financial, and social benefits that are often unavailable; all this in one app! Whether you are a business, a student, a seller, a homemaker, an influencer, a labourer, or a contributor to society, Tweebaa rewards you every step of the way! https://preview.redd.it/rbzc2hucbzu51.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=97bb0492ccf23673cfb671be1370bfcf4ef07fff Over the years Tweebaa has distributed wealth to both investors and users alike via its token called TWEE and has remained at the forefront of trends and latest developments. Tweebaa is going DeFi (TweeB) and promises to create a revolutionary system the world is more than ready for. What is DeFi? The definition might vary when asked by different individuals, but they all come back to the same meaning; decentralized means to render services such as lending and borrowing with no 3rd party involvement, restrictions, delays, the line waiting, and long queues. DeFi is currently the most talked-about project echoing around the crypto space. Many are raving about it, while some are still critical. DeFi farming has to do with individuals providing some form of liquidity to the market which in turn creates returns and keeps the market active. It gained massive attention when it came into existence and is still active and a hot topic of discussion today. Tweebaa is introducing a new token called TweeB which included all the features of a DeFi coin. Tweebaa users will be able to explore and make use of this newly discovered global network. What makes TweeB so unique? At the moment, decentralized finance is mainly directed to an investor's interest with the sole aim of investing or rather putting in money and waiting for results (short-term). One can argue that it has yet to actually become a general platform when compared to centralized finance like the banking system, which offers services for every type of person. TweeB plans to reach a much wider user base, not only including the general cryptocurrency investor pool, but also the entire global network available through Tweebaa. Using Tweebaa’s existing community, TweeB will create something that is totally different and rewards all users, both depositors and borrowers. Whether you provide liquidity, lend to the TweeB platform, or make use of its borrowing services by providing crypto supported collateral, users can yield returns, regardless of which direction they decide to take. Combining the power of Tweebaa and TweeB, the more TiV a user holds, the more interest they will generate. What is TiV? TiV is an influence value, which reflects a user's contribution to the APP. People can increase their TiV by using the app in various ways including; adding and purchasing products, engaging and networking with other tycoons, inviting friends, and more. There are many ways users can increase their TiV performance
Buy & Sell products
Invite more friends
Having your posts liked, commented on, or shared
Having your Tycoonplace being viewed for more than 30 seconds
Follow 5 new friends
Creating a new post
https://preview.redd.it/0e4fip7ebzu51.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=b81f13f4b676411adff523bc6a2b611d7f1d2e5d In the field of DeFi in Tweebaa’s ecosystem, the TiV value is similar to the credit value and plays a vital role in relation to TweeBuck (TweeB). What is TweeBuck and how will users be able to make full use of this platform? TweeBuck (TweeB) is the next generation upgrade from its token holders. All potential changes, including adding new marks or adjusting system specifications (for example, leverage factors or interest calculations), must go through the proposal and voting process. TweeBuck (TweeB) is a token which embeds 1:1 voting right to execute composite governance. Token holders of TweeB can simply delegate their voting rights of utility tokens on ERC-20 to their own or other people’s Ethereum wallets address. How does TweeBuck plan to reward its users? TweeB is basically a DeFi-based coin and it plans on providing more financial services, when compared to other types of decentralized finance platforms, using the following features and more.
Providing Liquidity (Liquidity mining)
https://preview.redd.it/y8zh5tifbzu51.png?width=415&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ebe7a922ebba38b0e1733de2397b5578c8cf460 Liquidity provider Basically, users will be able to provide TweeB liquidity on a ratio of 50/50 to whichever coin it is paired with, i.e. TweeB/ETH, TweeB/USDT, and more depending on users and what they prefer. As a liquidity provider, decisions on which pair to trade TweeB with will be totally dependent on users as it should when referencing a decentralized network. While the above is performed, liquidity providers get returns in TweeB tokens as more swap is carried out. Deposit As mentioned above, TiV plays a vital role when interacting with the Tweebaa platform. The more TiV you have, the more TweeBuck (TweeB) you will receive. The TweeBuck (TweeB) amount received will be based on 60% of the users Twee and 40% from their TiV. By depositing assets to the Tweebaa platform, users will be able to generate returns that are paid based on the pre-calculated format using different scenarios. More information regarding this can be found in the whitepaper. Borrowing Centralized systems like the banking sector, give out loans to customers and in return, those customers provide collateral which can include land, homes, and other assets. However, the world is going digital and so should borrowing. TweeB allows users to provide collateral in cryptos like BTC, ETH, and other altcoins which then provide users with the assets they want. They can provide collateral in BTC and take their desired coin to trade; this can be paid back and their vested collateral closed/removed. Conclusion TweeB token omics can be further broken down to self-governance. In terms of DeFi, this simply means users will be able to self-govern the TWEEB platform based on the vested amount they hold. This, in turn, creates a scarcer economy giving more value to the token. Scarcity is one of many ways to provide value to an asset, take BTC as an example with only 21mil total supply. It has, over-time, created a self-sustaining market which depends on holders and how much they are willing to sell at that point in time. The same can be said about TweeB. Holders will determine how much they are willing to sell or if they prefer holding it, they will have more scarcity and more value. In conclusion, TweeB hopes to create a system that is both community-driven and investment-wise, resulting in a system that is far more prevailing than anything currently available. While the future cannot be predicted, users are advised to carry out their own research before investing. To increase the awareness of TweeB, different events will be hosted occasionally. To find out more and keep up to date, join the Tweebaa telegram channel(community) if you haven’t already.
Forward Thinking Friday - Contrarian Messaging - 31 July 2020
Welcome to Forward Thinking Friday, a regular venue to discuss ideas, concepts and designs that push Decred further, bigger and better. Topics raised can be anything ranging from:
Technological improvements or enhancements
Unique opportunities well serviced by the Decred protocol
Responses to competing protocol designs and features
Integrations and Infrastructure
Marketing and Project Messaging
Focus Topic: Contrarian Messaging
There is a lot of hype for cryptocurrency markets and it is time for Decred to partake in it. Decred is Different in that it builds technology designed to outlast by aligning incentives, avoiding rent extraction and targeting decentralisation and resiliency at all costs. Decred's strength is in it's remarkable ability to take the contrarian bet against literally everything. This message is a key differentiator and deserves to be amplified. This week, I posit two potential areas for a Decred marketing campaign to rally around, and seek community input on defining the message and executing on social channels.
1. Decred is Ready
For the past 4.5years, Decred has been building. Until now, it has been difficult to pitch the protocol as 'sufficiently different' to its peers Bitcoin, ZCash, Monero et al. simply because many of the features were under development and not tangible enough. With Decrediton v1.6 and the DEX release, this changes. Decred will soon have average user access to:
CoinShuffle++ Privacy Mixer with huge volume, cheap cost, rotating user-base due to pseudo random votes
Steps towards decentralising the Treasury creating the first truly decentralised L1 DAO
DCRDEX enabling trustless exchange without reliance on centralised entities
Politeia enabling community governance decisions and dispute resolution
Decred is ready for the challenges that face cryptocurrency projects. Security attacks, governance failure, code calcification, KYC/AML and chainalysis, funding wells drying up, regulator pressure on centralised actors etc. As a DAO, it will command more on-chain funds than any L1 protocol and this is truly unique. #BuildToOutlast #DecredIsReady #DecredDAO https://twitter.com/plabarta_/status/1286062208460390401/photo/1
2. Own the Name, Decentralised Credits, in the face of 'De'Fi
'De'Fi as it appears on Ethereum is founded on principles of Debt, Leverage and usually centralised capital funding. The tokenomics, generally speaking, have incentivised an accumulation of cross-contract debt instruments that few in the ecosystem understand (let alone able to price in the risks). 100%+ APY is most definitely a junk bond of the highest order and these rates are simply unsustainable (as Vitalik himself notes). The way such returns can exist is that the silent 90% are paying for it in dilution, lost trades and increasingly scams, whilst the talking heads, crypto funds and backers quietly take their profits. As JYP covered in the latest Decred blog, incentivised leverage and debt is a core contributor to the fundamental problem within modern finance. Decred operates on entirely full reserve sound money, aka Decentralised Credits. Account Credit is the perfect counterpoint to Account Debt. Decred has an opportunity to express the value of its decentralised financial stack by owning the fact that the 'De' is actually decentralised, and the 'Fi' is coming to fruition (Decred is Ready). 6.7% APY paid in scarce, sound money DCR, without taking on debt and minimising code/smart contract risk highlights our path towards solving the problem, not perpetuating it. An example of this is shown below to demonstrate the ROI in DCR for a new ticket holder starting staking today. Decred Finance Incentivises security, privacy mixing, governance, DAO decision making, self-sovereignty, trustless exchange, optimised and scalable payments and storing value, all using a scarce sound money Decentralised Credits (Not Decentralised Debt). Decred staking ROI for holders of 1 to 5 tickets. Colour and ticket price RHS, Cumulative ROI LHS. Ticket price is estimated assuming all PoW issuance becomes tickets (has been the trend to date) As always, look forward to your comments, discussion and forward thinking suggestions.
What the whales are doing with STA, spoiler alert, it's pretty damn bullish
So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin. What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price). There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example: Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak. But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work,go to the contract addressthen click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). Also there are only 1,700 people in the coin, we are still VERY early, this is more than a 50% increase in a week. Lastly the balancer pool (which balances the index) has over $350,000 in it up over 50% in the last week, this is arguably the most important metric, the liquidity here is what allows the balancing to happen and the STA price to be forced to go up, this is a huge amount of liquidity for something only held by 1,700 people, it's actually quadruple the liquidity of the trading pairs on Uniswap! Long story short the balancer pool is armed and ready to balance and support STA. So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you, we're in the early stages and seeing a lot of health in the token, and there is a lot of liquidity here. Now, the top 13 addresses: 1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin. 2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?) 3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move, though the dump on this account came from another account that is now zero, could be a similar situation to address 6 where it is a "cold storage" for someone trading with other accounts 4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells) 5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game) 6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER. 7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXACT GAME... 8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME 11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account 12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since. 13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself. The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing). DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
Leverage comes from leveraging, and we all know what a lever does unless you fell asleep in middle school. The lever principle consists of force, the perpendicular distance from the pivot, moment, and more... Actually, I forgot all about the concept of the lever principle. ;) A simple explanation of the lever principle is the force multiplication using a small force to lift large objects. Scissors and bottle openers that we often use in everyday life are all using the principle of the lever. The leverage in Bitcoin margin trading can also be understood as a function that gives the effect of a large investment with a small investment. Leverage is also commonly used in real estate transactions. When one's capital is $1 million and wants to purchase a $2 million building, borrowing $1 million from a bank or other financial institution and purchasing the building is also included in the concept of leverage. By applying this concept directly into the leverage on bitcoin margin trading, which will be explained below, one can purchase a $2 million building with a capital of $1 million, doubling the leverage. The maximum leverage available for each cryptocurrency derivatives exchange varies slightly. You can use up to 100x leverage on the MCS Bitcoin derivatives exchange. This means that I can trade using up to 100x leverage, which means I can invest up to 100x of my capital. When making a general Bitcoin transaction, if my capital is $500, the maximum number of Bitcoins that I can be purchased is only $500 worth of Bitcoins. However, on the MCS Bitcoin derivatives exchange, if my capital is $500 and uses 100 times leverage, I can trade with $50K worth of Bitcoins. https://preview.redd.it/urieqmpr35g51.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a705d09d1930fc2387254c7fa400ea8521218372 The profit and loss rate when trading with and without leverage is the difference between heaven and earth. Assuming that the Bitcoin price has doubled after purchasing, if you invested $500 without using leverage, you will make a profit of $500 and your last asset balance will be $1K. On the other hand, if you used 100 times the leverage and invested $500, the actual transaction will be $50K worth of Bitcoin, so your profit will be $50K, and my final asset will be $50.5K. As you may have noticed, you can earn as much profit as the leverage used. Thus, although my capital may be limited, by using leverage on the MCS Bitcoin derivatives exchange, I can realize an unbelievable return on my capital. https://preview.redd.it/lcu3nffs35g51.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b671baceea2a26d92259c563c4080c64f1ea98d Since I am telling you about leverage, I would like to introduce to the MCS traders who actually realized financial freedom through Bitcoin margin trading at the end of 2017. BJ Wedorm, a legend amongst Korean margin traders, started investing in Bitcoin with $4K and "retired" after a year of trading with a fortune of $10 billion. He who was born in 1996-1997 traded on BitMEX using leverage to triumph the financial freedom we all dream of. https://preview.redd.it/a977kbft35g51.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ec504f27487b192160dbc3e96da74efca4999c7
💡 "Poverty has many roots, but the tap root is ignorance." - Lyndon B. Johnson
In Bitcoin margin trading, leverage is a means of trading large investment funds with small capital. Leverage trading is a typical high-risk high-return, a double-edged sword that can be beneficial or harmed to you depending on how you use it. I wish all MCS traders to realize financial freedom by wisely using this leverage, a key element of Bitcoin margin trading, along with short selling. I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post. \Trading with leverage is clearly a way to earn a large return; however, it is highly risky. Before trading with leverage, I strongly recommend that you fully understand the advantages and disadvantages of leveraged trading.* 🔸 MCS Official Website : https://mycoinstory.com 🔸 MCS Telegram : https://t.me/mycoinstory_en Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS. Thank you. MCS Official Twitter (EN):https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs MCS Official Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin. What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price). There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example: Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak. But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work, go to the contract address then click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you. Top 13 addresses: 1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin. 2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?) 3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move 4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells) 5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game) 6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER. 7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXAT GAME... 8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related) 10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME 11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account 12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since. 13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself. The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing). DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
Introduction This story starts with DCG and it’s relationship with Dr. Darren Tapp of ASU (Arizona State University). But Dr. Tapp does not stand alone, for there is a loose network of friends with a shared agenda, not only to make dash a regulator-friendly project but to wilfully weaken end-user privacy by upholding a principle of transparency-first. More than ever, society is engaged in a war on privacy. And when it comes to financial transactions, DCG has taken the position of transparency-first. In sharp contrast, many other projects in this industry are either improving end-user privacy (decred, tezos etc), or actively pursuing privacy first (monero, beam etc). As you may know, the scaling wars of the past revolved around block size, eventually giving way to “big blocker” projects like bitcoin cash and dash. By enforcing small blocks, Blockstream successfully syphoned off miner fees to the Lightning Network and it’s own Liquid Network. I believe we may be witnessing a similar event with dash. This time it’s not a scaling issue, it’s a privacy issue; transparency-first vs privacy-first. The Power of Inaction As many of you know, Dr. Darren Tapp is a research professor at ASU. And you may also be aware, in July 2019, the dash treasury paid ASU 345 dash for research into zero-knowledge proofs. Here’s an excerpt from the proposal along with the relevant link:
“This proposal seeks funding to renew our annual funding commitment to ASU’s Blockchain Research Lab and specifically to fund a research project which would investigate methods to apply zero-knowledge proofs to blockchain identities. It is possible Dash could leverage this research to apply zero-knowledge proofs to identity functions within the Dash network.” https://www.dashcentral.org/p/dash-core-group-research
To date, there has been zero feedback from this project and, so far, all requests for an update have resulted in silence, including it’s omission from the DCG quarterly call. I am particularly concerned by a seemingly gross contradiction. The result of this research into zero-knowledge proofs was to apply to blockchain identities but not to actual payments when they hit the dash blockchain. DCG and it’s proponents argue that privacy-first negates the ability to audit the chain for inflation. But if this was true, how can anyone argue with confidence that zero-knowledge proofs would only work with blockchain identities? It is, I say, a bit disingenuous to suggest it can work one way but not the other. A Tapp Perspective I now want to draw your attention to a recent interview between Joel Valenzuela and Dr. Darren Tapp on 8 May 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tikj0O0xphE Here is a particularly pertinent quote from Dr. Tapp:
@ 1:06:13 DT: “Well, I’ll just tell you my use case for dash, right. You’re talking about your use case. My use case for dash is, well, I’m not going to worry about the coffee guy thinking I have a whole bunch of money because I’m going to pay with my phone and I’m only going to keep a small amount on my phone, right? So that right there, they would have trouble you know, they have to go a few steps back and then they’re not even sure if it’s mine if there’s no Private Send. Um, if I don’t use Private Send. And if, let’s say, if I did want to take some money and put it into Coinbase. Well, if I don’t use Private Send and they’re asking “where’s the money came from?” - and that’s what they’re going to do - it’s going to be a little bit easier to say, “this is where it came from”, right?. I mean, I wouldn’t lie to them, I’d tell them the same thing no matter if I used Private Send or not, but I just think I’m going to have less problems with the bank and stuff if it wasn’t so obfuscated. So yeah, I think there’s a kind of, I think there needs to be room for both on chain. There needs to be.. I mean, I’m glad you’re enjoying Private Send. I think there are some improvements that can be made to Private Send. Umm, but I mean, there were some discussion of MimbleWimble and there is, no, we do not do that. No no no. But like, I mean, if you want to bring over some improvements, maybe start reading about the Cash Fusion that’s on the Bitcoin Cash. Umm, so err and like, I believe if you read Cash Fusion, their paper, I believe we can do Private Send in a way where the masternodes doesn’t know which output corresponds to which input. So, right now we trust that the masternodes aren’t paying attention, aren’t going to, you know… they’re... yeah I mean, and they have the word trust in it, they have a vested interest in the network working so that Private Send works the way it’s supposed to work. But, you know, at the same time, if you can do some small little cryptographic thing for no real cost on your processors and stuff like that, umm, why wouldn’t you? So that’s one thing I think that can be brought in. I think Cash Fusion also might do a better job of keeping the balance separate or something like that, but err., I would definitely be in favor of improving Private Send. Umm, but also at the same time, I’m glad that I’m given a choice if I want to use it or not. And pretty much anything when I’m interacting with the banking system, which I know you’re doing a fiat-free, so you don’t need to worry about that Joel.. but when you’re interacting with the banking system, the easier it is to explain to them, the better off, the easier time they’ll give you. That’s the way it is.”
In other words, Dr. Tapp’s priority is transparency-first for the benefit of the banking system. What I found particularly interesting was Dr. Tapp’s body language. While he was making the above statement, at 1:07:04 he says, “I wouldn’t lie to them [the bank]” and at this exact same moment he goes to touch his face and pulls back. This is a body language clue that he’s lying or somewhat anxious about saying this. This doesn’t mean he is actually lying because with body language you normally need multiple clues to be sure, but having watched it multiple times, I am personally more convinced than not that he was in fact lying or anxious. Dr. Tapp has outright rejected MimbleWimble, which is fine because MW is just one of several privacy enhancing technologies. But given the complete lack of feedback regarding zero-knowledge proofs from ASU. And given Dr. Tapp’s stance on transparency-first for the benefit of the banking system, I am wondering if there’s more to this than just one person’s opinion on the matter. The Yes Chain DCG asserts that dash has fewer privacy features than bitcoin. To make this case, considerable effort has been made to educate exchanges and regulators: https://blog.dash.org/dash-complies-with-the-financial-action-task-force-fatf-guidelines-including-the-travel-rule-a4c658efc89d According to DCG, the benefits of a transparency-first approach are: a) Transaction monitoring b) Identifying and blocking transactions that utilized mixing, or are in close proximity of known bad actors or sanctioned wallet addresses. c) Track anonymity enhanced convertible virtual currencies and wallet addresses sending more private transactions. d) This means that the VASP can choose to identify, block, and report on all transactions sent with Dash PrivateSend and can track and report on all the components of a mixed transaction. e) Reporting on your users’ blockchain transactions f) Establish an automated record keeping system for suspicious activity g) Activity reporting, customer due diligence, and currency transaction reporting. h) Track anonymity enhanced convertible virtual currencies and wallet addresses sending more private transactions. i) Customizable risk scoring Clearly, the scoring / ranking of coin histories (“risk assessment”) is producing a situation where some coins are more worthy than others. Let us also consider the recent initiative to get dash re-listed on Japanese exchanges at a cost of 428 dash: https://app.dashnexus.org/proposals/listing-dash-in-japan/overview Coinfirm-ation For a number of years, in pursuit of regulatory approval, DCG has been courting chain analysis companies. This started in August 2016 when Robert Wiecko (Dash COO) was invited to attend a bitcoin meetup in Warsaw where he met Pawel Kuskowski (CEO and co-founder of Coinfirm) . Here is the original proposal along with the subsequent Coinfirm interview with Amanda B Johnson: https://www.dash.org/forum/threads/dash-on-warsaw-block-on-25-08-2016.10211/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJOhIkeK3Ho Mr Wiecko’s original proposal failed to mention any relationship or intention to engage with chain analysis companies. Nor was it mentioned that this meetup itself was sponsored by Coinfirm. It comes with little surprise that Robert Wiecko does, in fact, have some experience working with compliance (see @ 27:05 of Amanda’s video).
“Btw, we have, both of us have a compliance background. My last job was with [inaudible] bank, before that within a banking compliance department”
“The thieves didn’t move the funds right away. A couple months after the initial theft, they started to move the funds to multiple wallet addresses across the world. During their hundreds of transfers, the thieves converted the Dash into other cryptocurrencies. We were able to track their every transfer, whether it was from one Dash address to another, or from a Dash address into another cryptocurrency. In the end, the thieves had transferred the stolen Dash into hundreds of different wallet addresses and exchanged the Dash for Bitcoin, Ether and Bitcoin Cash. We collaborated with the FBI and traced the funds to an exchange in Asia. Through our connections with that exchange, law enforcement was able to obtain details of the account owner, which led to a bank account. By September 2018, three months after the theft, our tools and collaboration with law enforcement had identified a person involved in this theft. At that point, the victims, law enforcement and us at BlockchainIntel were hopeful there would be some recovery of stolen funds. But that’s when things slowed down. A lot.”
“Over the past few years, Iranian visa-holders resident in the United States have seen their bank accounts at U.S. financial institutions shuttered as a result of U.S. sanctions. The most recent case is that of Chase Bank, where NIAC has learned that Chase is closing the bank accounts of Iranian visa-holders. NIAC is deeply concerned that U.S. banks are denying financial services to Iranians in the United States on the basis of their national origin and calls on Chase Bank and other U.S. financial institutions to cease and desist from such discriminatory policies. At the same time, NIAC believes that the repeated nature of these account closures makes it incumbent on the U.S. administration to take immediate steps to provide clarity as to the scope of existing U.S. sanctions laws — none of which bar U.S. banks from opening and maintaining accounts for Iranian visa-holders resident in the United States.”
Great! Who needs banks when Iranians can use dash! But then again, what if the recent history of your dash coins was linked to an innocent Iranian, disqualified and excluded by sanctions? Closing A global peer-to-peer electronic cash system needs to be cheap, fast and very easy to use. Dash’s technical ability to meet demand is very much in sight and the Velocity protocol certainly seems promising. But digital cash also requires a high degree of fungibility. The less fungibility there is, the more discretion and division it sows. The path of a coin should not unduly taint a person’s reputation. Incremental improvements have been made to Private Send but it is today, fundamentally, the same as it was six years ago. Mixing takes a long time and the user requires knowledge to use it in a safe manner. For example, external actors proactively breaking VPN connections to reveal the underlying IP address during mixing. A poor user experience is probably why Private Send isn’t used very much and that seems like a very convenient situation for those people actively pursuing regulatory approval. I have to wonder, has the internal workings of DCG been compromised by state level actors? Is this why key members of DCG have refused to undergo a polygraph test?
Hi guys. So, I can buy bitcoin. I can do leveraged buying of bitcoin. But, I don't have a way to hedge my risk. I want to leverage 5x long, and but have an option to sell bitcoin at the current price. If my leverage long get's liquidated due to a crash, I would only be out the cost of the option. Another trade I want to do is to buy options to both buy and sell bitcoin at the current price. So I went to https://login.cmegroup.com/sso/registerlite/form and they are asking for a company name. I am a retail investor. A rich retail investor (not a whale yet) but definitely not a minnow. I want to be a dolphin eventually. But I have no company. :/ So, I went to https://www.bakkt.com/ , and they just have a sign up for news. You can click the link to https://www.theice.com/products/72948304/Option-on-Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures and it just takes you to the intercontinental exchange. If you click login, there is no place to sign up, but it does have a bunch of connected apps that you can supposedly login with, but clicking the app doesn't download an executable or anything, and they don't have githubs for their code, but I suppose since they are normal corporate types they expect to be taken on trust of their reputation... Sigh. I just want to leverage long buy btc, and be able to hedge my risk so that if bitcoin does a nosedive alongside the stock market when it crashes next month I don't lose my existing btc stack. Does anyone have any experience trading btc options or futures? I have been stacking sats. I don't keep my coins on exchange. I want to get to 21 bitcoins, and the only way I see being able to do that this year is to go in with big risky moves. But, unhedged risk is waaaaay too dangerous. :( Also, if the sec is the one responsible for prohibiting americans from trading bitcoin options, we should totally organize an army to march to congress and get the red tape cleared.
trade using more BTC and no leverage or more leverage and less BTC?
I'm in the U.S. using Kraken exchange 1st off, thanks in advance for everyone’s reply(s). 2nd, I understand there’s no better way to lose money/BTC than by trading BTC using leverage. Thus far, I’ve had decent success with conservative trading off of basic “triangle-break-out patterns” with stops in place but would like to do more. (I can feel experienced traders cringing at that lol) I'm still learning. I have $100,000 to trade with, would it be better to: Option 1: trade by just buying/selling $100,000 worth of Bitcoin at a time. This makes me nervous a bit. If the BTC world went sideways I’m not sure a stop loss sell order would fill even with a stop loss in place? I don’t need huge gains. I'm not sure if a liquidation event for what I borrowed from the exchange would be more definite than the stop loss being filled. I'm not sure if I sound like an idiot by even saying that. Like I said, still wrapping my mind around leverage/liquidation. I’m fine with hitting singles and no leverage with trades using this much fiat. I’m doing this now with good results. But I want to try leverage. Option 2: or, should I use $50,000 and use 2x leverage or whatever the math is to achieve the same result as option 1? I would use tightish stops but I’m still soaking in all the issues of being liquidated. Can I only trade with leverage with BTC to BTC or can I use fiat to BTC? I imagine the tax implications are the same with leverage vs. none? Not sure if moving $100k from fiat to BTC for a trade on and off it triggers more i-r-s attention. Again, I get I can easily get reckt if I’m not very careful. I’m trying to mitigate my risk as best I can. I soak up all the knowledge I can from good traders in the space and I’m looking for a good course to up my trading game. I have some crypto in a hodl cold storage. I don’t have delusions of trying to quit my day job (yet lol) but I’m fine with making a few conservative trades a month. Thanks for your comments.
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Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto
With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.
What's happening now and how bad will it get?
First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top. Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are: 1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs 2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
We had a new breed of speculators come in during the NovembeDecember timeframe after media made cryptocurrency mainstream following the Bitcoin 10K landmark. While cryptocurrency markets have always had too much hype, the latest rise wasn't just over-enthusiasm in fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies like Monero and Ethereum, but mass inflows of fiat into vaporware and complete nonsense without any use case. Many people came in to essentially gamble on symbols on an exchange, and are thus short term oriented and quick to sell on any slight downturn, which such further adds to selling pressure.
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet. What should you do if you recently entered the market? If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers. The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it. What should long term investors do? For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit. Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.
How to construct your portfolio going forward
Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling. Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong). There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine: 1) Initial information gathering and filtering Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
What current product exists?
How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto. Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic. Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund. The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates). If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action. Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it. Think about your portfolio allocation You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos. For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps. You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment. Think of your "circle of competence" This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption? This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well. Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.
Summing it up
I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming. Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach. Take care and have fun investing :) Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
When I was at university, my perception of happiness was based on graduating and quitting my "shitty" job at the local supermarket. When I started my corporate career, I found the FIRE movement, so that perception shifted to wanting to grow my bank account and retire early to work on my side hustle.
When I did FIRE, I was so miserable, it almost broke my spirit.
First I want to extend a big thank you to this community. I have learned so much from here. There are some threads on here where I have read the replies so many times that I almost know them by heart ;) I achieved my FI by 1.Having a high paid corporate job I managed to climb up the corporate ladder in a relatively short time span not because I was so skilled at what I do, but because I have always worked on my social skills. (no that doesn't mean that I sold my ass lol) 2.Investing I started with a term deposit account then bought gold, then index funds, then individual stocks. The usual except that I also sold stock options which paid me handsomely. 3.Always having a second source of income from a plethora of side hustles that I had started over the years. - Dropshipping was the most consistent business I owned. - Day trading bitcoin was the most profitable. 4.Frugality: This is where my views diverge a little from the common dogma. I just chose not to waste my best years pinching pennies and not doing the things that I want (not necessarily need) to do. Not material things but more experiences. As an example, travelling has literally changed me as a human being and my net worth could have been a lot bigger without travelling every single year, but I believe that travelling when young is very different than when I have settled down and/or matured. My Story Early 2016, although my net worth by most calculators out there told me that I have to work for at least a few more years before I make these calculators happy, I decided that my safety net is large enough to retire and I am capable of making my side hustle at the very least cover my expenses. So I quit my job. The mornings feel so damn different when you are not a corporate slave. Everything seemed more enjoyable from getting coffee in the morning to taking random walks during the day. I started to enjoy my interactions with others so much more. Maybe the facade of the corporate world had trivialised the small things for me. Leaving my corporate job was no excuse for being lazy. I was working 14 hour days on growing my e-com business. and it was definitely paying off. I was either behind a computer screen, at the gym, or with my girlfriend. Around 3 weeks in, I started talking to walls as all my friends were at work during the day and I started feeling some loneliness. I found a job at a local gym. 3 nights a weeks. Working at a gym is something that I have always had on my bucket list. I loved it. It kept me sane. I started having what Financial Samurai calls an identity crisis. I was good at my job, financially stable. I consider myself a very confident individual. But I hadn’t realised that most of my sense of self worth was tied to my job. Now that it was gone and everyone around me including my girlfriend were still at work. My self esteem started to suffer. The gym closed. Now my loneliness was exacerbated. Combine that with a fluttering self esteem. My relationship started to suffer. I broke up with my girlfriend at the time, 4 months after quitting work. I've had many break ups, but I still carry the deep scar of this one as it represented more than a breakup. It represented the collapse my identity that I had built over the years. Viktor Frankl's A man's search for meaning describes this perfectly. I lost my purpose. Now severe depression set in. I cannot describe to you how debilitating that was. I didn't want to do anything. I literally felt that there was an invisible door stopping me from leaving my room, let alone the house. Stopped answering calls let alone talking to other human beings. I didn't even know what day it was and I didn't care. I was prescribed antidepressants and Valium. I refused the antidepressants and on a whim,pushed by my siblings, decided to travel ,alone, for the first time in my life. A silent retreat in India. Bungee jumping in a dodgy place in Thailand. Learning meditation and yoga. Scuba diving. Catching up with childhood friends and family members across different countries. I started feeling better. So much better very quickly. Then I went to Bali. I wanted to live the "nomad" lifestyle, so I signed up at Hubud and the Dojo (2 renown coworking spaces in the digital nomad community) This was life changing. One the best experiences in my life. I felt a sense of belonging to a tribe of like minded people. I was so motivated to work because the energy around me was contagious. I closed my e-com store (too many negative emotions attached to it) and started leverage trading bitcoin (on Bitmex). I bought all kinda courses, joined paid groups, newsletters and it did pay off... I was averaging $200-$300 days which is incredible for a noob. Imagine waking up, meeting up with friends for breakfast at the beach, going to the co-working space, making money, then having fun at night with your friends. You know that picture marketers paint in our heads of some dude running a business from his laptop at the beach? That's real. Then comes the wake up call. I quickly noticed that people come and go. I would develop friendships (even a great relationship) then a few weeks later, my new found friends would go back home and I'd have to start from scratch. Then the novelty of working from the beach and not answering to a boss started to lose its meaning. Also, the visa run wasn't my favorite thing to do. At that crossroad, I had a call from a recruiter who had worked with me in the past, about a new alluring opportunity. My decision was based on this: I can always go back to FIRE but the longer I stay out of the workforce the harder it will be to find a job. So I went back to the corporate world. This is not the end of my story as I know that office work will never be a long term option for me. But I had to retreat and regroup for now…. I am as usual working on a side hustle - I am still trading options. Lessons learned *I didn’t realise this at the time, but for me now, the end goal of FI isn't necessarily early retirement...but a sense of freedom. I can quit whenever I want which makes work a lot less stressful. Hell, I enjoy my work a lot more now just knowing that. *Early retirement is still on the agenda, but I will not do it alone. I will make sure that I have a better support system (a business partner / a spouse on the same journey / a team). *Loneliness is a bitch. I know that there are many introverts like me amongst you, but social isolation can literally KILL you based on multiple studies like https://heart.bmj.com/content/102/13/1009 *When you shift your paradigm, be psychologically prepared to conquer your demons and centre your self identity. You are not your net worth. You are not your job. *I understand the gravity of mental diseases a lot more now and I have a massive amount of empathy towards people who suffer from them. *Oh, and I have zero regrets. If I were to do it all over again, I wouldn't change a thing. I am grateful for the opportunity to fail and learn from my mistakes. Thank you for reading!
Blockchain technology has been one of the hottest trends in the finance sector, with the potential to completely transform business models in a number of sectors. Blockchain works similarly to a massive digital ledgespreadsheet, which is shared by all the members of a decentralized network. While blockchain technology is most frequently associated with confirming Bitcoin payments, it has evolved into a complete technology platform based on adapting decentralized ledgers for operations. So, how does one make money with this new technology platform? Just as many investors have taken advantage of the opportunity to stockpile gold in anticipation of the rising price, other investors are taking advantage of the opportunity to stockpile Bitcoin and a variety of other coins. The transparency and security of blockchain technology makes it attractive for use in a variety of different cases far beyond cryptocurrencies. It can be used in everything from stock trading to ride-sharing to data security. As we move to the mainstream corporations, global entities continue to embrace the technology underlying bitcoin but that many blockchain projects have moved beyond the theoretical or testing phase, to producing real transactions, costs savings and other benefits. There are multiple opportunities that leverage the core underlying technology platform, the digital currency and the significant productivity and process improvements that are resulting from it. Investing in these companies is likely to produce solid long term gains. The improvements in speed and security could be revolutionary as transaction times and trade costs decrease. You could even use blockchain to track property ownership in less developed nations and prevent concert or sports ticket counterfeiting right here in the United States. Specifically, there are the companies that make chips and hardware for crypto mining. There are publicly traded companies that engage in actual cryptocurrency mining. Miners are rewarded with crypto for performing this service and can then sell it on the open market for profit. The gains are then passed on to shareholders. Blockchain is based on a decentralized network. As a result, cloud-based technology companies are in an ideal position to take advantage of the growth of blockchain. Cloud-based companies that provide blockchain services will be a strong bet for growth down the road. Blockchain is poised to disrupt the payment processing industry. It could cut out middlemen – companies like Visa, Mastercard & AmEx – by processing transactions more efficiently. Look for the older players to either take advantage of blockchain and adapt – or find themselves in big trouble. There are even penny stocks for cryptocurrency. While Bitcoin is definitely the most well-known digital currency, there are a variety of specialty coins that have emerged over the last 10 years. In additional to investing in coins, there are a number of young companies that are investing in Blockchain and are listed on the junior exchanges. These companies offer exciting opportunities for growth to investors. Crowdfunding, Angel funding and investing in startups is certainly not a new concept. There has been a tremendous amount of interest in investing in startups built on blockchain technology. As Bitcoin has become increasingly popular and accepted by more mainstream businesses, the number of entrepreneurs interested in experimenting with the technology behind the cryptocurrency has skyrocketed. Yet, as is the case with any other new venture, such startups need funding. Blockchain technology’s cost and speed efficiencies, along with its transparency and security, will likely lead many companies to adopt the technology. Getting in on blockchain stocks now is a great way to be in on the ground floor when the technology really takes off. TraQiQ has begun the process of moving the core platform for supply chain to Blockchain. As the company moves to leverage the power of transactions on this platform, it is likely that the Digital Currency component will play a significant role in fulfilling these transactions. https://www.traqiq.com/blog/blockchain/making-money-with-blockchain/
Definition: Leveraged Bitcoin trading is a kind of trading where you borrow Bitcoin from a crypto exchange or other traders to increase your trading position beyond what would be available from your cash balance alone. You should keep in mind that leverage will also multiply the potential downside risks in case the crypto coin of your choice goes down. Example: Say, you want to buy two BTC ... Those who decide to trade Bitcoin Stock CFDs can even act with a leverage of 1:5. In this way there are even higher profit opportunities and also the equity capital can be a little lower. The leverage makes it possible that the traders only deposit a small security deposit and the rest is factually financed by the broker. If the position then wins, the traders naturally collect the profit and ... Leverage Is a Legal and Efficient Use of Capital . The reality is that professional traders trade using leverage because it is an efficient use of their capital. There are many advantages to trading using leverage, but there are minimal disadvantages. Trading using leverage allows traders to trade markets that would otherwise be unavailable and allows them to trade more contracts (or shares ... CRYPTOCURRENCY LEVERAGE TRADING: Definition, How It Works, Advantages and Disadvantages. May 29 2020. Cryptocurrency Leverage Trading. In recent years, trading on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are becoming a common activity with the surge in acceptance of crypto assets. With the increasing number of crypto investors and traders across the world, a lot more crypto exclusive exchanges are ... For instance, if you hold the capital worth $1 and borrow $50 leverage to trade on the Bitcoin market, with 1 pip being 1/100 of a penny, then a move towards favorable upside price direction, say for 100 pips, would yield the profit of $1, or 0.1 percent. So if you would trade, say a larger amount like $50,000 on your original capital $1,000, you would end up making a whopping $5,000 return ...
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